Copper Shock: What Contractors Need to Know in 2026

You quoted the wiring job at $12,000. By the time you started work, copper had spiked. Now you’re $2,000 in the hole before you’ve pulled a single permit.

Copper prices have surged around 40% compared to this time last year, hitting record highs above $6 per pound. A major driver: 50% tariffs on imported copper products that took effect in August 2025, covering pipes, wires, rods, sheets, tubes, fittings, cables, and electrical components. The U.S. imports roughly 45% of the copper it consumes, so there’s no avoiding the impact.

For electrical, HVAC, and plumbing contractors, this is more than just a commodity headline—it’s a direct hit to your bottom line.

“It’s having an interesting effect on construction right now,” says Jerry Poon, Lead Electrical Engineer at Red Dog Engineering, who works closely with contracting firms on design-build projects. “It’s adding a lot of instability to the market.”

Some contractors are absorbing losses. Others locked in prices, updated their contracts, and found strategic alternatives. Here’s their playbook.

Why copper costs are spiking (and when relief might come)

Three forces are driving copper prices to record levels:

Tariffs added 50% overnight. Semi-finished copper products—the pipes, wires, and fittings you actually use—now carry a 50% tariff on their copper content. Raw copper cathodes are exempt (for now), but that doesn’t help when you’re buying finished wire.

Adam Tucci, co-owner of Benjamin Franklin Plumbing of the Triad in North Carolina, has watched the increases hit his business directly. “Prices have gone up 30 to 40% for straight pipe,” he says. “And the fittings themselves have almost doubled—they’re up 80%.”

The timing couldn’t be worse. Ryan Grambart, founder and CEO of World Coppersmith, which sources custom copper products globally, describes a “perfect storm” hitting suppliers: copper prices surging while the dollar weakens simultaneously. “When that happens, suppliers are getting dollars which are less valuable and copper prices are going up—so they’re squeezed,” he says. The result: “We’ve seen price increases between 15 and 30% from some suppliers in less than a month.”

Supply disruptions keep tightening the market. Major mines are offline or operating at reduced capacity. A mudslide at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine—the world’s second-largest—disrupting its production, and full operations won’t resume until 2027. Analysts project a global copper deficit of 330,000 metric tons in 2026.

Demand from AI, EVs, and energy infrastructure isn’t slowing. Data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy projects all require massive amounts of copper. Demand is expected to keep growing through the decade.

When will prices drop? Don’t hold your breath. Most analysts expect copper to trade between $4.80 and $5.50 per pound through 2026, with potential for higher spikes. Some forecasts see prices reaching $12,500 per metric ton by mid-2026.

Poon expects continued volatility. “We’re seeing more saber rattling with our transatlantic partners,” he says. “And a lot of our electrical switchgear comes from there. If that continues, there’s going to be even more instability than what we have today.”

1. Lock in prices before you quote

The gap between bidding and buying is where contractors lose money. Material suppliers may honor quotes for 30, 60, or 90 days—but copper can swing 10% in a week.

Tucci has adapted his purchasing strategy accordingly. “We are making larger purchases before the end of the month to cushion the following month as prices have been rising,” he says. His team also requires upfront payments from clients, then immediately buys materials to lock in current rates.

What to do:

• Get written price commitments from suppliers before submitting bids
• Ask suppliers about early procurement and storage arrangements—buy materials at bid price and store them until needed
• Negotiate volume commitments for better pricing—commit to annual spend levels in exchange for locked rates
• Request price locks tied to specific project timelines, not calendar dates

Your script: “I’m bidding a job that won’t start for 90 days. Can you hold my copper wire pricing through [specific date] if I commit to the order by [decision date]?”

2. Shorten your bid validity and add escalation clauses

A 90-day bid made sense when material prices moved 2% annually. Now? It’s a liability.

Poon has seen contractors dramatically shorten their price holds. “Typically prices are held for 30 days, and I’ve seen that drop down to 15 or even 10 days,” he says. “I’ve seen contractors add notes saying prices are pending updated vendor prices, or they add a 10% surcharge.”

Some contractors are making prices explicitly conditional. “Prices are dependent on copper prices at the time of the project award,” Poon says, describing language he’s seeing in proposals.

Fixed-price contracts leave contractors bearing the full risk of material price increases unless you negotiate protections upfront.

What to do:

• Cut bid validity to 30 days maximum—or shorter if your market allows
• Add material escalation clauses that allow price adjustments when costs exceed a threshold (typically 5-10%)
• Use the Producer Price Index for copper as your objective baseline—it’s neutral, verifiable third-party data
• Include specific language identifying which materials are covered: copper wire, copper pipe, copper fittings

Sample escalation language: “If the price of specified copper materials increases by more than 5% between contract execution and material procurement, the contract price shall be adjusted to reflect the documented cost increase. Contractor shall provide written notice and supplier invoices documenting the increase.”

NAHB offers sample escalation clause templates you can adapt for your contracts.

3. Know when material substitution makes sense

Copper alternatives exist, but they’re not universal solutions. Each comes with trade-offs in performance, code acceptance, and installation requirements.

“People are very quick to try to substitute because of the copper costs,” Tucci says, “even though it can be a better material for some applications.”

PEX instead of copper pipe (plumbing)

• Savings: PEX costs significantly less than copper per foot, and installs faster
• Best for: Residential water supply lines, radiant floor heating
• Limitations: Some jurisdictions restrict PEX, so check local codes. Not suitable for outdoor or UV-exposed applications. Can’t be used for gas lines.
• The reality: “In commercial buildings, metal piping can be required,” Tucci explains. “For a house that already has copper, we won’t go back and replace it with copper because of the price. But for commercial buildings that require it, that’s the only time we’re using it.”

Aluminum instead of copper wire (electrical)

• Savings: Aluminum costs significantly less than copper for equivalent applications
• Best for: Large feeder applications (1/0 gauge and larger), service entrance conductors, commercial power distribution
• Limitations: Requires larger gauge wire (typically two AWG sizes up from copper), needs proper AL-rated terminations, not practical for branch circuits. History of failure when installed incorrectly.
• The reality: Poon’s firm pursues aluminum substitution on every project, but it’s not always feasible. “We’ve asked the engineers to accept aluminum as a substitute,” he says. “However, in projects that have already been designed, that means heavy, heavy redesign. It really depends on the project.”

What to do: Before proposing substitutions, verify local code acceptance and discuss with inspectors. Document your reasoning and get client approval in writing.

4. Build copper volatility into your financial planning

Nearly half of construction projects lose money after factoring in overhead, and material volatility is a major contributor. Track copper exposure the same way you track labor costs.

The volatility isn’t going anywhere. Tucci notes that supplier price adjustments have become routine: “Ferguson adjusted weekly, now monthly. Reece adjusts monthly. And really only up—I can’t think of anything that has come down.”

What to do:

• Calculate your copper exposure per job type. How much copper goes into a typical panel upgrade? A whole-house rewire? An HVAC installation?
• Add a material contingency line item to estimates—5-10% for copper-heavy projects
• Track actual versus estimated material costs weekly, not at project end
• Review supplier pricing monthly and adjust standard pricing accordingly

Your baseline targets:

• Know the copper content by weight or dollar value in your top 5 job types
• Update material pricing in your estimating software at least monthly
• Flag any job where material costs exceed estimate by 5% for immediate review

5. Communicate proactively with clients

Clients don’t follow commodity markets. When your bid comes in higher than their neighbor’s remodel cost two years ago, they assume you’re overcharging—unless you explain.

The good news: Most clients understand once you explain. “I think everyone really understands how things are right now and how unpredictable things are,” Poon says. “It’s commonly understood where these problems are coming from.”

That said, client reactions vary by market segment. Grambart, who works with high-end custom projects, sees the opposite of hesitation: “If anything right now, it’s more like urgency to get it in because they’re afraid it’s going to go even higher.” For price-sensitive clients, the sticker shock is real. For clients with budget flexibility, fear of future increases can actually accelerate decisions.

What to do:

• Address material costs upfront in estimates: “Material costs, particularly copper, have increased approximately 40% over the past year due to supply constraints and tariffs.”
• Include documentation: a brief explanation of market conditions signals transparency, not excuse-making
• Frame escalation clauses as protection for both parties: prices could also drop, and you’ll pass along savings

Your script: “I want to be upfront about something. Copper prices have increased 40% this year, and there’s a 50% tariff on imported copper products. I’ve built current pricing into this estimate, but I’ve also included an escalation clause that protects both of us if prices shift significantly before we start work.”

6. Offer financing to keep deals alive

Higher material costs mean higher project totals. When a customer sees $28,000 instead of $22,000 for the same scope, hesitation kicks in.

Tucci has seen the effect on his business: “I can’t say it’s directly because of material cost concerns, but as a result of the pricing we have to quote because of our material prices—yes.” Higher quotes mean more hesitation.

Financing doesn’t reduce your costs, but it keeps customers from walking away and gives both parties more control in a volatile environment. With Acorn Finance, you get paid upfront and in full, while your client gets multiple loan options to choose from. They can afford the project they actually want, and you close the deal without cutting scope or waiting for them to save up.

What to do:

• Calculate monthly payments for typical job sizes before client meetings
• Present financing as standard practice, not a last resort
• Focus on the outcome: “This gets your project done now instead of waiting for prices that may never come back down.”

Your 30-day action plan

Week 1: Assess your exposure

• Pull last quarter’s jobs and calculate actual copper costs versus estimates
• Identify which job types have the highest copper exposure
• Call your top three suppliers and ask about price lock options

Week 2: Update your contracts

• Add escalation clauses to your estimate templates
• Shorten bid validity from 90 to 30 days
• Specify which materials are covered by escalation provisions

Week 3: Review substitution options

• Check local code acceptance for PEX and aluminum alternatives
• Identify jobs where substitution makes sense
• Document savings calculations for client conversations

Week 4: Adjust your pricing and communication

• Update material pricing in your estimating software
• Create a brief copper market explanation for client estimates
• Set up monthly price review reminders

The bottom line

Copper prices aren’t coming back to pre-pandemic levels. The contractors thriving right now aren’t waiting for relief, they’re adapting.

Poon’s advice for staying profitable: “Make sure your proposals are properly written to protect yourself, and look for alternatives to copper. You’ll have to work with the engineer to make sure they’ll accept redesigns.”

Tucci puts it simply: “Escalation clauses for changing material prices, and purchasing materials as early as possible with upfront payments to protect yourself.”

Material volatility is here to stay. Plan for it, and you’ll stay profitable no matter what copper does next.

Need to close deals despite higher project costs? Acorn Finance helps contractors offer customer financing that keeps projects moving. When clients can spread a $25,000 project into manageable monthly payments, “let me think about it” turns into “when can you start?”